A hypothetical and strictly scientific war scenario
By: Mihalis D. Rellos, President of “Achilles”.
Since 1974 there is a possibility of a Turkish attack against Greece or Cyprus (free southern part). Turkey has gathered a great number of tanks, airplanes, guns and soldiers. 40000 of them are in the occupied part of Cyprus since 1974 when Turkey invaded the island. But Greece has a very powerful army, as well. It includes a superior navy, a high trained air force and great advantages in the main frontier of the war, the Aegean Sea. The Turkish fleet must come out of the straits and it is vulnerable to naval attacks, air attacks and Exocet and Harpoon missiles attacks in a point of total sinking.
The Turkish Air Force has a relatively small advantage in numbers of F16s. But for a war over the Aegean Sea, this advantage will soon disappear. During January 1999 3 batteries of Patriot PAC-2 AA missiles arrive in Greek islands of the Aegean Sea as part of a greater sale of 1,2 billion dollars of new Patriot AA PAC-3 missiles arriving within the next two years. Another battery of S-300 AA missiles will soon arrive at eastern Crete, as well (the Cypriot missiles). This armament eliminates the Turkish advantage in the quantity of third generation airplanes and the Aegean Sea becomes a hostile and deadly area for the Turkish Air Force. Also, the Greek army has ordered 21 short range AA batteries of TOR and CROTALE missiles. This arsenal will be added to the existing Hawk, Osa and Nike-Hercules AA missiles.
The Aegean Sea (full of thousand Greek islands) is the ideal place for a total Greek success in naval war, since the Greek navy has a long tradition in defeating Turkish fleets since 1821!
Greece and Turkey have common borders in Evros river in Thrace. The eastern Thrace belongs to Turkey and the western Thrace to Greece. The Turkish eastern Thrace is a big valley straight from Evros river to Constantinopolis (Istanbul for the Turks). The western Greek Thrace is highland. So, a Turkish attack against western Thrace is almost impossible. If decided, it won’t be fruitful for the Turkish army.
There are many Greek islands near the Turkish shore of Asia Minor. There, a sudden Turkish attack is possible, but the results won’t be permanent. The total Greek imposition in the Aegean Sea for the above reasons (Patriot AA missiles – S300 AA missiles – experienced Greek Air Force – superior Greek Navy) will permit the liberation of every island.
The only Turkish military advantage lies in Cyprus (free Greek Cypriot side) which has a defense that may last at least for many weeks in every kind of attack. But the duration of the war in Cyprus will permit the total Greek victory in the Aegean Sea and the victorious fleet would easily liberate Cyprus and throw the Turks out of Cyprus.
One must take in account that the Turkish troops in northern part of Cyprus have no depth of defense. Even though they overcome the Cypriots in a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 scale, they can not win without extended air and naval support from Turkey. Anyway, within the next months the Cypriot Republic announced that it will buy a sufficient number of short and middle range AA Russian missiles and tens of new T-80 Russian fourth generation tanks. These armaments will improve enormously the Greek Cypriot defense.
The air base of the national Guard in Pafos is ready and the naval station in Zygi will soon be completed in order to support Greek F16s, A7 Corsairs, modern Frigates, Destroyers, Gun Boats and Submarines.
Armenia, the northern neigbor of Turkey is already protected with Russian S300 AA missiles and Mig29s under Russian control. Syria has ordered S300 AA missiles, as well. The Kurdish rebels in Eastern Turkey threaten Turkey with a new round of internal war. It is quite possible that a long war between Turkey and Greece in any frontier will engage Armenia, Syria and the Kurds rebels against Turkey. Armenia, Syria and the Kurds believe that Turkey occupies Armenian, Syrian and Kurdish land and the only chance they have to regain these lands is a Turkish Greek war. This is the worse case scenario for Turkey (demolition of Turkey and division in many parts).
The worse case scenario for Greece is to stand all alone against Turkey. Even in this case the loss for Greece would be minimal. But Turkey, would have to stand great losses (naval prohibition of presence in the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea and the extension of Greek internal waters to 12 nautical miles, the European boycott for many decades, the destruction of its industrial areas in eastern Thrace and the shore of Asia Minor).
The Turkish economy suffers from high inflation of 90% and other severe economical problems. In the other hand, Greece has a strong and rich economy and it is a member of the European Union. The Greek ship oweners control the greater part of sea transport. The Greek Americans have a prosperous community of 4.000.000 people in the United States and can influence things in favor of Greece. Objectively, the economical comparison comes for Greece!
The conclusion of every scenario in Greek Turkish war is that Turkey will never try to attack Greece or Cyprus, because it has nothing to gain. If Turkey decides to attack, it risks a destructive future.
